It is virtually certain that the semifinalists in the World Junior Team Championships will be Italy, USA 2, Chinese Taipei and Denmark.

Israel and Norway are still mathematical possibilities going into this morning's final round-robin match. Italy won three more matches yesterday, defeating China, Hong Kong and Egypt with 66 of a possible 75 Victory Points. That guarantees Italy first place no matter what happens today. Italy has 286 VPS, and the best runner-up USA 2 can do is wind up with 273. That means Italy will have its choice of its semifinal opponent. No matter whom Italy chooses, the Italians will have a major advantage as a result of the carryover formula - the Italians beat all three of the other likely qualifiers.

So what are the mathematical possibilities? Israel has 223 and Norway has 219. Israel's possible is 248 - that requires a blitz - and the best Norway can do is 244. USA 2 needs only a single VP to guarantee qualification, Chinese Taipei requires four and Denmark needs seven. The chances of one of these teams being blitzed while Israel or Norway score a blitz certainly are tiny at best.

USA 2 solidified its position by defeating Canada 1, Egypt and Israel. Chinese Taipei started the day poorly by losing to Denmark, but then came back with victories over Canada 2 and Hong Kong. Denmark broke loose from the pack by beating Chinese Taipei, USA 1 and China.